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About
the Author |
Martin Ford is the founder of a
Silicon Valley-based software development firm. He has over 25
years experience in the fields of computer design and
software development. He holds a computer engineering degree
from the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor and a graduate
business degree from the University of California, Los
Angeles. |
|
The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation,
Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the
Future
Excerpt:
Introduction |
A Detailed Table of
Contents is also available
Introduction
Like most people, I have been giving a
lot of thought to the economic situation as the most serious crisis
since the Great Depression has continued to unfold. Since I develop
software and run a high tech business, I also spend a great deal of
time thinking about computer technology, and so I began to focus on
how economics and technology intertwine. The current crisis has been
perceived as primarily financial in origin, but is it possible that
ever advancing technology is an unseen force that has
contributed significantly to the severity of the downturn? More
importantly, what economic impact will technological acceleration
have as we anticipate recovery from the current crisis—and in the
years and decades ahead? What will the economy of the future look
like?
Among people who work in the field of
computer technology, it is fairly routine to speculate about the
likelihood that computers will someday approach, or possibly even
exceed, human beings in general capability and intelligence.
Speaking at an industry conference in 2007, Google co-founder Larry
Page said, "We have some people at Google [who] are really trying to
build artificial intelligence and to do it on a large scale. It's
not as far off as people think." Ray Kurzweil, a well-known
inventor, author and futurist, states quite categorically that he
expects computers to become at least as intelligent as humans by the
year 2029. While other experts are far more conservative about
the prospect for machines that can achieve genuine intelligence,
there can be little doubt that computers and robots are going to
become dramatically more capable and flexible in the coming years
and decades.
What is the likely economic impact of
machines or computers that begin to catch up with—and maybe even
surpass—the average person's capability to do a typical job?
Clearly, the employment market would be one of the first areas to
feel that influence. Put yourself in the position of a business
owner and think of all the problems that are associated with human
employees: vacation, safety rules, sick time, payroll taxes, poor
performance…maternity leave. If an affordable machine can do nearly
any routine job as well as a human worker, then what business
manager in his or her right mind would hire a worker?
Even if computers never become truly
intelligent, surely machines are likely to become far more capable
in terms of their ability to perform a relatively narrow range of
tasks. The reality is that a substantial fraction of the routine,
specialized jobs held by average people—including many people with
college degrees—simply do not really require the full intellectual
breadth of a human being. This is the reason that a lot of jobs are
boring. If computers can already beat the best chess players in the
world, isn't it likely that they will also soon be able to perform
many routine jobs? In fact, I think there are good reasons to expect
that machines may begin to approach this more specialized level
of "intelligence" within a decade or two.
Since many of the people who work in
fields like artificial intelligence and robotics are talking about
the future prospects for these technologies on a fairly regular
basis, I assumed that a similar discussion must be going on among
economists. Surely, the economists are thinking ahead. If machines
suddenly get smarter and start doing many of our jobs, then the
economists will have a plan in place. At least they will have
thought about it; they'll have some good suggestions. Right?
Well, no. It turns out that while
technologists are actively thinking about, and writing books about,
intelligent machines, the idea that technology will ever truly
replace a large fraction of the human workforce and lead to
permanent, structural unemployment is, for the majority of
economists, almost unthinkable. For mainstream economists,
at least in the long run, technological advancement always leads to
more prosperity and more jobs. This is seen almost as an economic
law. Anyone who challenges this "law of economics" is
called a "neo-Luddite." This is not a compliment. (We'll talk about
Luddites and the associated "Luddite fallacy" in some detail in
Chapter 2 of this book.)
While most economists dismiss the
question completely, the technical people seem to be entirely caught
up in the excitement of the technology itself and what it might
potentially promise. There is some discussion of the fact that
artificial intelligence might have serious impacts on society, but
much of this is focused on the threat of truly advanced or even
sentient machines in some way "taking over." There is little
attention given to the more mundane and immediate threats to the job
market and the overall economy. Perhaps the technologists just
assume that once the technology comes along, the economic issues
will somehow work themselves out.
Now that is an unsupportable
assumption. It would probably be reasonable to assume that technical
problems will sort themselves out. Technology usually seems to find
a way. But economic policy and political issues? Think back to 1993.
Bill Clinton had just been elected and had promised to reform the
health care system. As we all know, that effort failed. The major
issues back in 1993 were very similar to what we continue to face in
2009. As this is being written, Congress is once again taking up the
issue of comprehensive health care reform. It has taken a full 16
years to get to this point, and still the outcome is by no means
certain.
But what happened with technology? In
1993, hardly anyone had heard of the Internet: it was something that
people in government and at universities used primarily for
work-related email. Some people had primitive cell phones. Microsoft
had just introduced Windows 3.1, which for the first time brought a
usable graphical interface to IBM PC-compatible computers. The
evidence is pretty clear: a race between technology and our ability
to reform our political and economic systems is really no race at
all. So if we can foresee that technology is likely to have a highly
disruptive impact on our economy in the coming years and decades,
then we really need to start thinking about that well in
advance.
The disintegration of the Soviet Union
in 1991 demonstrated quite conclusively that there is no good
alternative to the free market system. Other economic systems simply
cannot compete. In fact, it's probably reasonable to say that the
free market economy is one of mankind's greatest inventions—ranking
right up there with the wheel. The wealth and progress that we enjoy
in the industrialized world would not have come into being without
the underlying logic of capitalism. Historically, technology and the
market economy have worked together to make us all more wealthy.
Will this always be true? Is it simply a matter of leaving the
system we have in place?
The reality is that the free market
economy, as we understand it today, simply cannot work without a
viable labor market. Jobs are the primary mechanism through which
income—and, therefore, purchasing power—is distributed to the people
who consume everything the economy produces. If at some point,
machines are likely to permanently take over a great deal of the
work now performed by human beings, then that will be a threat to
the very foundation of our economic system. This is not something
that will just work itself out. This is something that we need to
begin thinking about—and that is the primary subject of this
book.
Once you identify and begin to think
about the economic ramifications of advancing technology, it becomes
clear that these trends are already well established and may even
underlie the current crisis to a significant extent. If you make
some very logical, and even conservative, assumptions about where
technology is likely to lead in the coming years, much of the
conventional wisdom about what the future will look like becomes
unsupportable. In particular, important trends such as globalization
simply may not play out in the way we have been led to expect. If we
do not recognize these issues and adapt to the changes they imply,
it will be very difficult—perhaps impossible—to achieve a
sustainable recovery that will lead to long term prosperity in the
years and decades to come.
As we will see, technology is not just
advancing gradually: it is accelerating. As a result, the impact may
come long before we expect it—and long before we are ready. And yet,
this issue is simply not on the radar. If after reading this book,
you are concerned about the issues raised here, then I hope you will
consider speaking out. Perhaps if enough people start to discuss
these issues, even the economists will take notice.
A Detailed Table of
Contents is also available |