The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology
and the Economy of the Future
Table of Contents
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Detailed Table of Contents - You can also read the Introduction
Introduction 1
Chapter 1: The Tunnel 7
The
Mass Market 10
Visualizing
the Mass Market 12
Automation
Comes to the Tunnel 18
A
Reality Check 21
Summarizing 25
Chapter 2: Acceleration
27
The
Rich Get Richer 28
World
Computational Capability 39
Grid
and Cloud Computing 41
Meltdown 44
Diminishing
Returns 47
Offshoring
and Drive-Through Banking 55
Short
Lived Jobs 57
Traditional
Jobs: The Average Lights in the Tunnel 58
A Tale
of Two Jobs 63
Software
Jobs and Artificial Intelligence 67
Automation,
Offshoring and Small Business 74
Hardware
Jobs and Robotics 75
Interface
Jobs 80
The
Next Killer App 81
Military
Robotics 85
Robotics
and Offshoring 86
Nanotechnology
and its Impact on Employment 87
The
Future of College Education 90
Econometrics:
Looking Backward 93
The
Luddite Fallacy 95
A More
Ambitious View of Future
Technological Progress:
The Singularity 100
A War
on Technology 103
Chapter 3: Danger 107
The
Predictive Nature of Markets 107
The
2008-2009 Recession 110
Offshoring
and Factory Migration 113
Reconsidering
Conventional Views About the Future 115
The
China Fallacy 117
The
Future of Manufacturing 124
India
and Offshoring 127
Economic
and National Security Implications
for the United States 128
Solutions 131
Labor
and Capital Intensive Industries:
The Tipping Point 131
The
Average Worker and the Average Machine 135
Capital
Intensive Industries are Free Riders 138
The
Problem with Payroll Taxes 140
The
Workerless Payroll Tax 142
Progressive
Wage Deductions 144
Defeating
the Lobbyists 146
A More
Conventional View of the Future 148
The
Risk of Inaction 152
Chapter 4: Transition 156
The
Basis of the Free Market Economy: Incentives 158
Preserving
the Market 159
Recapturing
Wages 162
Positive
Aspects of Jobs 168
The
Power of Inequality 169
Where
the Free Market Fails: Externalities 170
Creating
a Virtual Job 172
Smoothing
the Business Cycle and Reducing
Economic Risk 178
The
Market Economy of the Future 179
An
International View 182
Transitioning
to the New Model 184
Keynesian
Grandchildren 188
Transition
in the Tunnel 191
Chapter 5: The Green Light 193
Attacking
Poverty 195
Fundamental
Economic Constraints 200
Removing
the Constraints 201
The
Evolution Toward Consumption 203
The
Green Light 206
Appendix / Final Thoughts
208
Are
the ideas presented in this book WRONG?
(Opposing arguments
with responses) 209
Two
Questions Worth Thinking About 222
Where
are we now? Four Possible Cases 223
The
Next 10-20 years: Some Indicators to Watch for 226
Outsmarting
Marx 236
The
Technology Paradox 238
Machine
Intelligence and the Turing Test 240
About / Contacting the
Author 245
Notes 246
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